POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU
BY MARK MATHER, LINDA A. JACOBSEN, AND KELVIN M. POLLARD
AGING IN THE
UNITED STATES
Population Bulletin
www.prb.org
DECEMBER 2015
VOL. 70, NO. 2
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ABOUT THE AUTHORS
MARK MATHER is associate vice president in U.S. Programs at the
Population Reference Bureau. LINDA A. JACOBSEN is vice president
in U.S. Programs at PRB. KELVIN M. POLLARD is senior demographer
in U.S. Programs at PRB.
Funding for this Population Bulletin was provided through the
generosity of the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation.
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POPULATION BULLETIN 70.2 2015
11
TABLE OF CONTENTS
AGING IN THE UNITED STATES
BY MARK MATHER, LINDA A. JACOBSEN,
AND KELVIN M. POLLARD
DECEMBER 2015
VOL. 70, NO. 2
POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU
Population Bulletin
INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................2
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS ...........................................................................2
Figure 1. The Number of Americans Ages 65 and Older Will More
Than Double by 2060 .....................................................................................
3
Figure 2. By 2060, Nearly One-Quarter of Americans Will Be Ages
65 and Older ..................................................................................................
3
Figure 3. Despite Growing Diversity, Non-Hispanic Whites Will
Account for More Than Half of Older Americans Through 2060 ........................
4
Figure 4. The Current “Diversity Gap” Between the 60+ Population and
Younger Generations Will Widen by 2030. .......................................................
4
MARITAL STATUS AND LIVING ARRANGEMENTS ....................................4
Figure 5. The Share of Divorced Americans Ages 65 and Older
Is Increasing, While the Proportion Widowed Is Declining ................................
5
Box 1. Defining Housing Units and Group Quarters .......................................6
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT .....................................................................6
Figure 6. More U.S. Men Than Women Ages 65 and Older Have
Bachelor’s Degrees ........................................................................................
6
GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION .................................................................... 6
Figure 7. Older Americans Make Up At Least 20 Percent of the
Population in One-Quarter of U.S. Counties ....................................................
7
ECONOMIC SECURITY ...............................................................................7
Figure 8. As Social Security Benefits Have Expanded, the Poverty
Rate Among Americans Ages 65 and Older Has Declined ...............................
8
Figure 9. Social Security Is the Primary Income Source for Older
Americans With Low Incomes.........................................................................
9
Box 2. Effect of the Great Recession on Older Adults ..................................10
Figure 10. The Share of U.S. Men and Women Ages 65 and Older
in the Labor Force Has Grown Since the 1990s ............................................
11
Figure 11. College-Educated Americans Are More Likely to Be in
the Labor Force After Age 65. .......................................................................
11
HEALTH AND WELL-BEING ......................................................................11
Figure 12. Obesity Continues to Increase Among Older Americans. ...........12
Box 3. Narrowing Old-Age Gender Gap in the United States Linked to
Declines in Smoking .....................................................................................
13
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES ......................................................14
Figure 13. Social Security and Medicare Expenditures Are Projected
to Reach a Combined 12 Percent of GDP by 2050. .......................................
14
Box 4. Aging Populations Challenge Countries Worldwide...........................15
Figure 14. By 2030, There Will Be Only About Three Working-Age
Adults for Every Person Age 65 or Older .......................................................
15
CONCLUSION ............................................................................................16
REFERENCES ............................................................................................17
POPULATION BULLETIN 70.2 2015
2
www.prb.org
The current growth of the population ages 65 and older is one
of the most significant demographic trends in the history of
the United States. Baby boomers—those born between 1946 and
1964—have brought both challenges and opportunities to the economy,
infrastructure, and institutions as they have passed through each major
stage of life. Although U.S. policymakers and others have had many
decades to plan for the inevitable aging of the baby boom cohort, it is not
clear that sufficient preparations have been made to meet baby boomers’
anticipated needs in old age.
AGING IN THE UNITED STATES
Many older Americans rely
on family caregivers, but
high divorce rates and
fewer children among
baby boomers may reduce
the availability of family
caregivers in the future.
2.3
MILLION
The number of nursing home
residents in 2030 if the share
of Americans ages 65+ living
in nursing homes remains at
2010 levels.
4 in 10
Adults ages 65 to 74 who
were obese in 2009-2012.
Declines in both fertility
and immigration related
to the Great Recession
have accelerated the
growth in the share of
the U.S. population
ages 65 and older.
Planning for the future needs of older
adults is complicated, in part because
the baby boom generation is one of
contradictions. While some current
characteristics of baby boomers suggest
that they will experience more economic
security in old age than previous generations,
other traits will pose challenges for
policymakers and service providers.
Compared with earlier cohorts, baby
boomers have higher levels of education and
more years of work experience, which should
increase their lifetime earnings and economic
security as they reach age 65 and beyond.
However, fewer children and high divorce
rates among baby boomers mean that more
may live alone in old age without either
the financial and social support or informal
caregiving provided by a spouse or child.
Life expectancy in the United States is
increasing, and today’s older adults—
especially those ages 85 and older— have
lower rates of disability than the generations
that preceded them. But rising obesity rates
put adults ages 55 to 64 at higher risk for
chronic disability in old age, compared with
their parents’ generation.
There are also wide disparities in the
economic and physical welfare of older adults
by gender and across different racial/ethnic
groups. Older women are more likely to live
alone than men and are twice as likely to be
poor. At age 50, black men and women
still have lower life expectancies than their
white counterparts. And among adults ages
65 and older, racial/ethnic minorities are
much more likely than whites to rely solely
on Social Security for their family income.
Policymakers and others need to pay
attention to these gender and racial/ethnic
gaps, which could undermine progress in
advancing the well-being of older Americans
in the coming decades.
This Population Bulletin examines trends in
the size and characteristics of the population
ages 65 and older in the United States, and
considers the risks, costs, and implications
for the future.
Demographic Trends
SIZE AND AGE COMPOSITION
The number of people ages 65 and older
in the United States has increased steadily
since the 1960s, but is projected to more than
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POPULATION BULLETIN 70.2 2015
3
double from 46 million today to more than 98 million by 2060
(see Figure 1). Between 2020 and 2030 alone, the number
of older persons is projected to increase by almost 18 million
as the last of the large baby boom cohorts reaches age 65.
Although much smaller in total size, the number of people
ages 85 and older is projected to more than triple from 6
million today to nearly 20 million by 2060.
The number of centenarians, or people age 100 or older, has
also increased from around 32,000 in 1980 to more than
53,000 by 2010.
1
If life expectancy at older ages continues
to rise in the United States, then the number of centenarians
could increase to more than 600,000 by 2060, although they
would still make up less than 1 percent of the population ages
65 and older for that year.
2
While the youngest members of the baby boom generation will
not turn 65 for another 15 years, recent declines in fertility and
in immigration to the United States due to the Great Recession
have accelerated growth in the share of the population that is
ages 65 and older. In 1960, only 9 percent of the population
was age 65 or older, while more than one-third (36 percent)
was under age 18 (see Figure 2). By 2014, children made up
less than one-fourth of the total population (23 percent), while
those ages 65 and older made up 15 percent, or nearly one-
sixth of the total. In 2008, U.S. Census Bureau projections
showed the number and share of children exceeding that of
the older population every year through 2050, while more
recent projections show the number and share of the older
population surpassing that of children by 2035.
The future size of the older population, relative to the
population of children and working-age adults, will depend
in part on trends in immigration. The latest projections from
the Census Bureau assume that the net number of annual
immigrants—most of whom are working-age adults—will
peak at around 1.5 million per year by 2060. But if future
immigration levels are higher than the current Census Bureau
projections, the future size of the older population would be
reduced relative to younger age groups.
RACIAL AND ETHNIC COMPOSITION
The U.S. population is becoming more racially and ethnically
diverse, but this diversity is still concentrated in the youngest
age groups. In 2014, more than three-fourths of people ages
65 and older were non-Hispanic white compared with only
half of children under age 18. While the older population will
gradually become more diverse, more than half are projected
to remain non-Hispanic white through 2060 (see Figure 3,
page 4). However, between 2030 and 2060, the share of the
older population that is non-Hispanic white will drop by 17
percentage points, and the share that is Hispanic will double
from 11 percent to 22 percent.
The changing racial/ethnic composition of the population
under age 18, relative to those ages 65 and older, has
created a “diversity gap” between generations. In 1960,
the racial/ethnic profile was fairly similar for successive
generations (see Figure 4, page 4). That is, there was no more
than a 3 percentage-point difference in the share who were
minorities between adjacent age groups. However, by 2014,
sizeable gaps in the percent minority had emerged between
adults in their 40s and 50s and both those who were ages 20
to 39 (9 percentage points) and those who were ages 60 and
older (11 percentage points). Today, nearly half of those under
age 20 are members of a minority group compared with only
one-fourth of those age 60 or older.
FIGURE 1
The Number of Americans Ages 65 and Older Will More
Than Double by 2060.
Source:
PRB analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
U.S. Population Ages 65 and Older, 1960 to 2060 (Millions)
46 Million
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ages 85+
Ages 65–84
2014
98 Million
FIGURE 2
By 2060, Nearly One-Quarter of Americans Will Be Ages
65 and Older.
1960 2014 2030 2060
Under Age 18
Percent of U.S. Population in Selected Age Groups, 1960 to 2060
Ages 18-64 Ages 65+
9%
55%
36%
15%
62%
23%
21%
58%
21%
24%
57%
20%
Note:
Numbers may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
Source:
PRB analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
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POPULATION BULLETIN 70.2 2015
4
The generational divides between the age groups under 60
will shrink somewhat by 2030, but the gap between adults
ages 40 to 59 and those ages 60 and older will increase to 15
percentage points. When baby boomers comprise a majority
of those ages 60 and older in 2030, less than one-third
(30 percent) of this age group is projected to be members
of a minority age groups compared with more than half of
those under age 40. By 2060, nearly half of older adults are
projected to be racial/ethnic minorities—roughly the same
share as those under age 20 today.
At the societal level, the diversity gap could increase
intergenerational conflict over public resources between a
mostly white older population—eligible for Social Security
and Medicare benefits—and a younger and racially/ethnically
diverse population entering the workforce during the current
period of economic instability.
3
Marital Status and Living
Arrangements
MARITAL STATUS
Marital status and living arrangements play an important role
in social support, economic well-being, and the availability
of caregivers for those ages 65 and older. Since 1960, the
proportion of older women who are married has increased
steadily while the proportion who are widowed has declined
by 19 percentage points primarily due to rising life expectancy
among men (see Figure 5, page 5). However, despite these
positive trends for women, a sizeable gender gap remains—
nearly three-fourths of men ages 65 and older are married
compared with only half of older women. Older men are also
much less likely to be widowed than older women for two
reasons: Women’s higher life expectancy means more wives
outlive their husbands and widowed men are more likely than
women to remarry. Most adults in the United States still marry
at least once—since 1960, less than 10 percent of older men
and women have never been married. But the rise in divorce
rates beginning in the 1960s has resulted in increasing shares
of older adults who are divorced.
These marital status trends may shift by 2030 when the large
baby boom cohort dominates the population ages 65 and
older. As young adults, baby boomers were influenced by the
dramatic changes in marriage and family formation that began
during the late 1960s and continued into the early 1980s.
Marriage and childbearing were delayed until older ages,
divorce rates rose sharply, and cohabitation and nonmarital
childbearing became more common. As a result, the marital
status of baby boomers at older ages may be quite different
from that of preceding generations. For example, by ages
45 to 63 a higher share of baby boomers (34 percent) were
unmarried than the previous generation, and baby boomers
who were unmarried were less likely to be widowed and more
likely to be never-married or divorced than earlier cohorts.
4
In fact, recent data indicate a slight increase in divorce rates,
particularly among those over age 50 in what is being termed,
1960
Percent Minority in United States, by Age Group, 1960, 2014, 2030 and 2060
2014
Year
2060
Under Age 20
Ages 40-59
18%
15%
12%
9%
48%
43%
34%
53%
23%
51%
45%
30%
Ages 20-39
Ages 60+
64%
61%
57%
47%
2030
Note:
Minorities include all racial and ethnic groups except non-Hispanic whites.
Source:
PRB analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau; and IPUMS USA, University of
Minnesota, www.ipums.org.
FIGURE 4
The Current “Diversity Gap” Between the 60+ Population
and Younger Generations Will Widen by 2030.
2014
White Alone
0
Black Alone Hispanic/Latino
Asian Alone Other
20602030
1%
4%
8%
9%
78%
2%
5%
11%
10%
72%
3%
9%
22%
12%
55%
FIGURE 3
Despite Growing Diversity, Non-Hispanic Whites
Will Account for More Than Half of Older Americans
Through 2060.
Note:
Racial groups exclude persons of Hispanic origin. “Other” includes American
Indians and Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians and Other Pacifi c Islanders, and people
who identify with more than one race. Numbers may not sum to 100 due to rounding
Source:
PRB analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
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POPULATION BULLETIN 70.2 2015
5
“a gray divorce revolution.”
5
The increase in the share of
unmarried baby boomers has also been associated with a rise
in cohabitation.
6
About 9 percent of unmarried baby boomers
ages 45 to 63 were cohabiting in 2009.
7
LIVING ARRANGEMENTS
The vast majority of older adults in the United States
live in housing units such as homes and apartments (96
percent), rather than in group quarters such as nursing
homes (4 percent).
8
But the wide variety of housing options
designed specifically for seniors can make this distinction
confusing (see Box 1, page 6). Among those ages 65 and
older who resided in group quarters in 2010, most men
(80 percent) and women (89 percent) were in nursing or
skilled-nursing facilities, with an additional 6 percent of men
in correctional facilities. For the remaining group quarters
residents, 13 percent of men and 10 percent of women
lived in noninstitutional settings such as group homes,
residential treatment centers, religious group quarters (such
as monasteries), or emergency shelters. Of course, the
proportion of older adults living in nursing homes increases
considerably as they reach ages 80 and beyond. While just
7 percent of women ages 80 to 89 lived in nursing homes in
2010, this share almost tripled (19 percent) for those ages
90 to 99 years and jumped to 35 percent for those ages 100
and older.
9
Even if the shares of older men and women living
in nursing or skilled-nursing facilities in the future remain
constant at 2010 levels, the larger number of baby boomers
will mean substantial increases in the number of people
needing such living arrangements after 2030. For example,
while 1.3 million people ages 65 and older lived in nursing or
skilled-nursing facilities in 2010, this number would rise to 2.3
million by 2030 and nearly 3 million by 2060.
The differences in marital status among older men and
women are also reflected in the living arrangements of those
who live in households. Older women are much less likely
to be married than older men and more likely to live alone.
More than one-fourth (27 percent) of women ages 65 to 74
live alone, and this share jumps to 42 percent among women
ages 75 to 84, and to 56 percent among women ages 85 and
older.
10
Even at ages 85 and older, less than one-third (30
percent) of men live alone.
Older adults who live alone lack another household member
to help them bathe, dress, cook, eat, or provide care if
they are injured or become ill. Older adults who live alone,
particularly women, also have lower levels of income and
are more likely to live in poverty. If a higher share of baby
FIGURE 5
The Share of Divorced Americans Ages 65 and Older Is Increasing, While the Proportion Widowed Is Declining.
1960
1980
2000
2015
Never Married
Women
Never Married
Men
Widowed
Women
Widowed
Men
Divorced
Women
Divorced
Men
Married
Women
Married
Men
Marital Status of Persons Ages 65 and Older by Age and Sex, 1960, 1980, 2000, and 2015 (Percent)
9%
6%
4%
5%
7%
5%
4%
5%
53%
51%
45%
34%
19%
14%
14%
12%
2%
3%
7%
13%
2%
4%
6%
11%
37%
40%
44%
48%
72%
78%
75%
72%
Note:
Married includes married spouse present, married spouse absent, and separated.
Source:
U.S. Census Bureau, 1960 Census, 1980 Census, 2000 Census, and PRB analysis of data from the 2015 Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement.
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POPULATION BULLETIN 70.2 2015
6
Educational Attainment
Education levels have been rising steadily since the mid-
1960s, resulting in a higher share of older adults who have
completed high school and college. Completing education
beyond high school is associated with longer life expectancy
and better health at older ages.
13
Among people ages 65 and
older in 1965, only 5 percent had completed a bachelor’s
degree or more.
14
By 2014, this share had risen to 25 percent.
However, the gender differences in college attendance
and completion among young adults before the 1970s are
reflected in the educational distribution of older adults today.
While about one-fourth of both men and women ages 65 and
older have completed some college, 31 percent of older men
have completed a bachelor’s degree or more, compared with
only 20 percent of older women (see Figure 6). Lower levels
of education among older women are important because they
are tied to lower income levels and higher poverty rates.
Geographic Distribution
Today, about 15 percent of the U.S. population is ages 65
and older, but older adults are more concentrated in some
parts of the country than others. Although the share of the
total population that is ages 65 and older is not projected
to surpass 20 percent until 2028, one in every four counties
has already reached that level (see Figure 7, page 7). Older
Americans are most concentrated in Florida, the Appalachian
region, and parts of the upper Midwest and Northwest, but
many counties outside of these regions also have large and
growing shares of older adults—especially in rural areas.
Nationwide, more than three-quarters (77 percent) of counties
already have older populations at or above the national
average. Most of the counties with smaller shares of older
adults are located in Alaska and other western states.
boomers remains unmarried at ages 65 and beyond, the
number who live alone may also increase substantially after
2030, and is not likely to be completely offset by the modest
increase in cohabitation within this age group. The future
increase in the number of unmarried older adults who live
alone may also result in increased demand for home health
care and community-based social services.
TENURE AND HOUSING COST
In 2014, nearly four-fifths (78 percent) of householders ages
65 and older owned their homes, compared with only one-
fifth (22 percent) who were renters.
11
However, more than one
quarter (27 percent) of older homeowners spent 30 percent of
their monthly household income on housing expenses, which
is typically considered to represent a housing cost burden.
12
Only homeowners ages 15 to 24 had a higher share (34
percent) with a housing cost burden. Spending 30 percent or
more of their monthly income on housing costs leaves older
homeowners with less money for food, transportation, and
medical expenses, including costly prescription drugs. Such
housing cost burdens can negatively affect the health and
economic well-being of older Americans.
Less Than
High School
Highest Level of Educational Attainment of Men and Women Ages 65
and Older, 2014
High
School
Some
College*
Bachelor’s
or More
Men
Women
17%
19%
28%
36%
24%
25%
31%
20%
*Includes those with some college but no degree and those with associate’s degrees.
Source:
U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2014.
FIGURE 6
More U.S. Men Than Women Ages 65 and Older Have
Bachelor’s Degrees.
BOX 1
Defi ning Housing Units and
Group Quarters
Most people reside in one of two types of living quarters:
housing units or group quarters. A housing unit is a house,
apartment, mobile home, group of rooms, or a single room
that is occupied as separate living quarters. Group quarters
are places where people live in a group living arrangement
that is owned or managed by an entity or organization
providing housing and/or services for the residents, such
as nursing homes or correctional facilities. Nursing and
skilled-nursing facilities are those that are licensed to provide
medical care with seven-day, 24-hour coverage for people
requiring long-term, non-acute care.
Housing that is specifi cally for the older population has
become much more prevalent, and is identifi ed by many
different names, such as senior apartments, independent
living, continuing care retirement communities, board and
care homes, and assisted living. Unless the living quarters in
these facilities meet the defi nition of nursing/skilled-nursing
facilities, they are generally considered to be housing units
as long as each resident’s living quarters are occupied as
a separate unit with direct access to the outside. Some of
these housing facilities may contain both housing units and
group quarters—which can make the distinction between
them confusing. For example, an assisted living complex
may have a skilled-nursing fl oor or wing that is considered to
be group quarters, while the rest of the living quarters in the
facility are considered housing units.
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POPULATION BULLETIN 70.2 2015
7
Florida has been a longtime magnet for retirees, but other
parts of the country—particularly parts of the rural
Midwest—are “aging in place” because disproportionate
shares of young people have moved elsewhere. Population
aging in rural America is a consequence of job loss and
long-term outmigration of younger adults, and can be
associated with declining tax revenues, shrinking school
enrollments and neighborhoods, and declines in the
availability of services, such as health care.
Future state-level population trends depend, in part, on the
migration patterns of baby boomers as they reach retirement
age. States and local areas that are attractive to younger
retirees could see a surge in older population growth during
the coming decades.
Economic Security
The poverty rate for Americans ages 65 and older has
dropped sharply during the past 50 years, from nearly 30
FIGURE 7
Older Americans Make Up At Least 20 Percent of the Population in One-Quarter of U.S. Counties.
14.5% to 19.9%
20% or Greater
Less Than 10%
10% to 14.4%
Percent of Population Ages 65 and Older by County, 2014
U.S. Average: 14.5%
Source:
PRB analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Population Estimates.
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POPULATION BULLETIN 70.2 2015
8
percent in 1966 to 10 percent today. In the early 1960s, the
poverty rate among older adults was much higher than that of
children and working-age adults. But the expansion of Social
Security, particularly during the 1960s and 1970s, contributed
to a rapid decrease in poverty among older adults (see Figure
8). As Social Security expenditures increased, the poverty rate
among older adults declined, and has remained at relatively
low levels for more than three decades. In 2014, the poverty
rate among older adults was 10 percent, half the rate for
children (21 percent) and lower than the rate for adults ages
18 to 64 (14 percent).
Although Social Security keeps most older Americans out of
poverty, there are wide economic disparities across different
population subgroups. While just 8 percent of non-Hispanic
whites ages 65 and older lived in poverty in 2014, the
comparable figure was 18 percent among Latinos and 19
percent among African Americans.
Older women are especially vulnerable. In 2014, about 12
percent of women ages 65 and older were poor, compared
with 7 percent of older men. Among those ages 75 and older,
women are nearly twice as likely to be poor (15 percent)
compared with men (8 percent). The large disparity at older
ages can be explained, in part, by women’s longer life
expectancy compared to men and the fact that older women
are more likely to be living alone. But higher poverty among
older women is also linked to the gender gap in earnings at
younger ages, which translates into lower Social Security
payments for women in retirement.
15
Although widely cited, the official poverty rate has been
criticized because it fails to account for many important
household expenses and benefits. While the official poverty
rate shows a high level of economic security among older
Americans, alternative measures of economic well-being
tell a different story. For example, the Census Bureau’s
Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) puts the 2014 poverty
rate among older adults at 14.4 percent.
16
The higher poverty
rate for older adults under the SPM reflects the fact that SPM
poverty thresholds are not adjusted based on the age of the
householder, while thresholds for the official poverty rate are
set lower for households headed by older adults—resulting in
fewer impoverished older adults under the official measure.
High out-of-pocket health care expenses, such as payments
for prescription drugs, also contribute to higher poverty rates
for older Americans under the SPM.
17
Economic disparities among younger adults raise concerns
about the future health and well-being of older adults.
Inequalities among working-age adults by gender, race/
ethnicity, and education tend to persist in old age. Older
adults with more economic resources are in better health
and live longer, on average, than those with fewer resources.
Maintaining a strong social network provides an important
buffer against stress and depression, but poor older adults
are more likely to live in deteriorating neighborhoods where
there may be concerns about safety and fewer opportunities
for social contact.
18
Lower socioeconomic status has
also been linked to a higher risk of developing Alzheimer’s
disease.
19
SOURCES OF INCOME
Older Americans rely on a combination of Social Security
benefits, pensions, retirement savings (including IRAs and
401(k)s), and earnings from full-time or part-time work. Since
the early 1960s, Social Security has provided about one-third
of the income of those ages 65 and older. The share provided
by pensions rose from 9 percent to about 18 percent
between 1962 and 1990, and has remained close to that level
since then.
20
Earnings from wages and salaries are also a major source of
income for older Americans. The share provided by earnings
has increased since the early 1990s, coinciding with the
rising labor force participation of older Americans. Asset
income (such as income from interest, dividends, or estates)
is the other major income source and accounted for about 9
percent of income in 2014, down substantially from the 1980s
and 1990s. The decline in asset income is largely due to the
drop in interest rates during the past several decades.
21
The mix of income sources varies significantly for older
Americans at the top of the income distribution compared
with those at the bottom (see Figure 9, page 9). Social
Security benefits, which are available at a reduced level at
Note:
Social Security payments are adjusted for infl ation.
Source:
U.S. Census Bureau and Social Security Administration.
FIGURE 8
As Social Security Benefi ts Have Expanded, the Poverty
Rate Among Americans Ages 65 and Older Has Declined.
Payments
Per Capita
Poverty
Rate (%)
1966 1974 1982 1990 1998 2006 2014
Poverty Rate
Social Security Payments
Poverty Rates and Per Capita Social Security Payments, 1966 to 2014
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
$18,000
$16,000
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
www.prb.org
POPULATION BULLETIN 70.2 2015
9
age 62, provide about 76 percent of income among lower-
income households headed by adults ages 65 and older,
while Social Security accounts for just 21 percent of income
among higher-income households headed by older adults.
Earnings account for 43 percent of income among higher-
income households, nearly four times the share among
lower-income households (12 percent). Asset income from
savings, investments, and rental income also accounts for a
higher share of income among higher-income households (12
percent), compared with lower-income households (2 percent).
Older racial/ethnic minorities are especially dependent on
income from Social Security because they are less likely to
have income from pensions, earnings, or assets. In 2013,
about one-fifth of African American and Latino older adults
relied solely on Social Security for their family income,
compared with 13 percent of white older adults.
22
WORKING LONGER
The U.S. labor force is growing older. In 2014, adults ages 55
and older made up about 22 percent of the labor force, up
from 12 percent in 1990. By 2022, their share is projected to
increase to 26 percent.
23
The recent graying of the labor force is linked to the large
cohort of baby boomers who are nearing retirement age
and rising employment rates among older adults, as well as
the increasing college enrollment and declining labor force
participation rates among working-age adults. The recession
also contributed to the rising share of older Americans in the
labor force, by putting pressure on older workers to stay on
the job (see Box 2, page 10).
Labor force participation rates among older adults declined
for several decades following World War II. Between 1950
and 1993, the percentage of those ages 55 and older in
the labor force fell from 43 percent to 29 percent. Earlier
retirement became common in the 1970s and 1980s, creating
a social class of healthy, active, and financially comfortable
retirees. The average retirement age among men fell from
nearly 67 years in the early 1950s to 62 years in the late
1990s, with a similar decline among women.
But since the 1990s, these trends have reversed. Rising
labor force participation rates among older adults have been
linked to a combination of factors. Employer pensions and
medical benefits for retirees have been largely replaced by
employee-funded defined contribution plans, such as 401(k)s.
Mandatory retirement ages have been abolished for older
adults in many industries—clearing the way for employees
to work after age 60 or 65. The age at which workers can
receive full Social Security benefits has increased from 65
to 66 or 67 for those born after 1942. The tax penalty for
earning income while receiving Social Security benefits has
been reduced. And older Americans are in better health and
living longer, making it possible to work into older ages (see
page 12).
While some older workers have stayed on the job, others
have left the workforce and reentered it. Data from the Health
and Retirement Study have shown that about 15 percent of
older adults have reentered the labor force after retirement.
24
Others have continued to work beyond traditional retirement
age but on a part-time basis. In 2014, about 40 percent of
employed adults ages 65 and older usually worked less than
35 hours per week, compared with 18 percent of working-
age adults (ages 16 to 64).
25
By 2014, 23 percent of men and about 15 percent of women
ages 65 and older were in the labor force, and these levels
are projected to rise further by 2022, to 27 percent for men
and 20 percent for women.
26
Labor force participation is
considerably higher among those ages 65 to 69 than those
ages 70 and over. However, the share of older adults in the
workforce rose sharply among both age groups after the mid-
to-late 1990s (see Figure 10, page 11).
Among men, the labor force participation rate of those ages
65 to 69 dropped from 43 percent in the mid-1960s to 24
percent by the mid-1980s before increasing to its current level
(36 percent). During the past few years, older men’s labor
force participation rates have declined slightly—especially
among 65-to-69-year-olds—as many baby boomers who had
delayed retirement during the recession have started to exit
the workforce.
27
FIGURE 9
Social Security Is the Primary Income Source for Older
Americans With Low Incomes.
Total
Shares of Aggregate Income for Households Headed by Adults Ages 65 and
Older in Different Income Categories, by Source, 2014
Earnings Social Security Assets Pensions Other
Medium-Income Lower-Income Higher-Income
3%
20%
9%
34%
35%
6%
5%
2%
76%
12%
3%
17%
4%
52%
24%
2%
23%
12%
21%
43%
Note:
Lower-Income = below 200% of the poverty line, Medium-Income = 200%–399%
of the poverty line, and Higher-Income = 400% of the poverty line or higher. Numbers may
not sum to 100 due to rounding.
Source:
U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2015 Annual Social and
Economic Supplement.
www.prb.org
POPULATION BULLETIN 70.2 2015
10
BOX 2
Effect of the Great Recession on Older Adults
The Great Recession (2007 to 2009) had wide-ranging
economic effects on Americans of all ages, but older
people were relatively insulated from the prolonged
economic downturn. Adults ages 65 and older were more
likely to be retired, so they were less likely to experience job
loss. They were more likely to own their homes outright, so
they were less likely to fall behind on payments or lose their
homes to foreclosure. And while poverty rates increased
sharply among children and working-age adults during
the recession, the poverty rate for retirement-age adults
remained unchanged, largely because of their access to
Social Security benefi ts.
1
Although young adults in their 20s and 30s bore the brunt
of the economic downturn, many Americans ages 50 and
older were also affected, either directly or indirectly, by
rising unemployment, falling home values, and the decline
in the stock market. Moreover, many older adults who were
not directly affected by the recession had children or other
family members who were. Data from the American Life
Panel (a series of Internet surveys of 2,500 adults ages
18 and older) show that fi nancial help during the recession
fl owed primarily from older parents to adult children.
2
Effects on Wealth and Spending
Households headed by older adults are wealthier, on
average, compared with households headed by younger
adults. In 2007, the median net worth of households
headed by adults ages 65 and older was about $257,000,
more than twice that of households headed by adults ages
35 to 54 ($100,000).
3
Older adults not only had more wealth
to lose during the recession, but also have less time to
wait for values in the stock or housing markets to recover,
compared with younger adults.
Between 2007 and 2011, median net worth declined by
$64,000 among households headed by adults ages 65 and
older, compared with a $60,000 decline among households
headed by adults ages 35 to 54. However, in percentage
terms, households headed by older adults experienced
smaller declines in wealth during the recession relative to
households headed by younger adults. Among households
headed by adults ages 65 and older, net worth declined by
25 percent between 2007 and 2011, compared with a 61
percent decline among households headed by 35-to-54-
year-olds.
4
Using a broader wealth measure that includes the future
value of Social Security payments and defi ned benefi t
pensions, the effects of the recession on older adults’
wealth were generally modest and by 2012, households
headed by older adults had recovered most of the wealth
they lost during the recession.
5
A recession can also affect consumption patterns as individuals
who become unemployed may reduce spending to make up
for the loss of income. Others may reduce spending because
they feel they are at risk of losing their job.
6
For older Americans,
cutting back on spending could mean rationing health care
spending through fewer doctor visits, screening tests, or
prescription drugs. Evidence from the Health and Retirement
Study (HRS) indicates that about one-third of those ages 55 to
64 reduced spending during the recession, compared with just
17 percent of those ages 75 and older, suggesting that older
adults were more insulated from the recession’s impacts.
Effects on Employment and Retirement Plans
Recessions can affect retirement expectations by putting
pressure on older workers to stay on the job, and HRS data
show that older workers are more inclined to delay retirement
when unemployment rates are increasing. This expectation to
continue working is especially true of workers who are closest
to retirement age, and those with high levels of debt.
7
Millions of people lost their jobs during the recession including
many older workers who experienced long-term unemployment
and eventually dropped out of the labor force. But overall,
the economic downturn had only modest effects on the
employment status of those nearing retirement age (ages 53
to 58). Unemployment increased sharply, but these job losses
were partly offset by employment gains among baby boomers
who postponed retirement.
8
While macroeconomic factors can affect retirement expectations
and trends, individual, family, and job characteristics also play
an important role. Older adults who are racial/ethnic minorities,
in poor health, and those with lower levels of education tend to
retire earlier than other groups. Certain jobs, such as those with
signifi cant physical requirements, can also force older adults into
early retirement.
References
1 Loraine A. West et al., “65+ in the United States: 2010,” Current Population Reports
P 23-212 (June 2014).
2 Susann Rohwedder, “Helping Each Other in Times of Need: Financial Help as a
Means of Coping With the Economic Crisis.” RAND Occasional Paper OP-269,
(2009).
3 Fabian T. Pfeffer, Sheldon Danziger, and Robert F. Schoeni, “Wealth Disparities
Before and After the Great Recession,” Annals of the American Academy of Political
and Social Science 650, no. 1 (2013): 98-123.
4 Pfeffer, Danziger, and Schoeni, “Wealth Disparities Before and After the Great Recession.”
5 Alan L. Gustman, Thomas L. Steinmeier, and Nahid Tabatabai, “The Great
Recession, Decline and Rebound in Household Wealth for the Near Retirement
Population,” Journal of Retirement 2, no. 2 (2014): 27-44.
6 Michael D. Hurd and Susann Rohwedder, “Expectations and Household Spending,”
Michigan Retirement Research Center Research Brief 287 (2013).
7 Maximiliane E. Szinovacz, Lauren Martin, and Adam Davey, “Recession and Expected
Retirement Age: Another Look at the Evidence,” The Gerontologist 54 no. 2 (2014).
8 Gustman, Steinmeier, and Tabatabai, “The Great Recession, Decline and Rebound
in Household Wealth for the Near Retirement Population.”
www.prb.org
POPULATION BULLETIN 70.2 2015
11
Women ages 65 to 69 also saw a gradual increase in labor
force participation over the period, but with a 2014 level that
exceeds the 1964 level by a considerable margin—27 percent
versus 18 percent. While labor force participation among
men ages 70 and over was still lower in 2014 than in the early
1960s, the rate among women in this age group is higher than
it has ever been in the last five decades.
An important consequence of longer life expectancy is that
people need to finance more years of retirement. Americans
are becoming aware that retiring at age 62 could easily
require 30 or more years of retirement income, giving them an
incentive to hold onto their jobs a little longer.
Many policymakers have proposed to increase the age
at which older adults are eligible for full Social Security
benefits—currently set at 67 for those born in 1960 or later—
to reflect longer life expectancies and to reduce costs. In
addition to broader fiscal savings, working longer can have
significant benefits to individuals. A 2010 study found that
workers who retired in their early 60s had reduced cognitive
ability compared with those who worked up to or beyond
retirement age.
28
But for many older adults, staying on the job is not an
option. Among Social Security beneficiaries, those who
are less educated, less healthy, and working in blue-
collar, physically-demanding jobs are more likely to take
benefits early compared with more highly-educated white-
collar workers.
29
In fact, men ages 65 to 74 with at least
a bachelor’s degree are more than twice as likely to be
in the labor force compared with those with less than a
high school diploma. And college-educated older women
are nearly three times more likely to be in the labor force
than their female counterparts who did not graduate from
high school (see Figure 11). Age discrimination also limits
employment opportunities among many older Americans.
Despite federal laws barring age discrimination, some firms
continue discriminatory practices in terms of hiring decisions,
workplace policies, or opportunities for advancement for
older adults.
30
This gap in labor force participation rates by education level
has increased over time, leaving less-educated older adults
more dependent on Social Security relative to those with
college degrees, who have more income from earnings and
retirement savings.
Health and Well-Being
By many measures, the U.S. older population is healthier than
previous generations. Older adults are living longer, disability
is less prevalent at the oldest ages, and old age is less likely
to mean death or loss of physical or mental functions. But
there are wide gaps in the health of older adults among
different racial/ethnic groups. And Americans have shorter
life expectancies, on average, compared with people in most
other high-income countries.
The increase in life expectancy has also been accompanied
by an increase in older Americans living with chronic
conditions. There are signs that baby boomers who are
approaching retirement age are in worse health compared
with previous generations. Changes in physical health among
older adults are important not only because they can affect
FIGURE 11
College-Educated Americans Are More Likely to Be in the
Labor Force After Age 65.
Less Than
High School
Labor Force Participation Rates of Older Adults Ages 65-74,
by Education and Sex, 201
4
High School Some College*
Men
Women
19%
11%
24%
21%
31%
24%
42%
31%
Bachelor’s
or More
*Includes those with some college but no degree and those with associate’s degrees.
Source:
U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2014 Annual Social and
Economic Supplement.
FIGURE 10
The Share of U.S. Men and Women Ages 65 and Older in
the Labor Force Has Grown Since the 1990s.
Percent of Men and Women Ages 65 and Older in the Labor Force,
1964 to 2014
1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Men Ages 65-69
Men Ages 70+
Women Ages 65-69
Women Ages 70+
0
10
20
30
40
50
43%
36%
20%
18%
27%
16%
9%
6%
Source:
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
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POPULATION BULLETIN 70.2 2015
12
daily activities and the need for long-term care, but also
because of the potential long-terms effects on mental health
and happiness in old age.
LIFE EXPECTANCY
Americans live longer than they did in the past, but life
expectancy in the United States continues to lag behind that
of many other high-income countries. U.S. life expectancy
increased from 68 years in 1950 to 79 years in 2013, in large
part due to the reduction in mortality at older ages.
31
But as of
2012, the United States ranked 27th out of 34 Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
countries in overall life expectancy.
32
Lower life expectancy in
the United States reflects, in large part, early deaths related
to higher rates of tobacco use and obesity compared with
other countries, according to recent studies by the National
Research Council.
33
There are wide gaps in life expectancy across different racial/
ethnic groups. At age 50, white men in the United States may
expect to live (on average) another 30 years and white women
another 33 years.
34
However, older black men and women
may not expect to live as long—27 and 31 years, respectively.
Conversely, African Americans who survive until age 85 may
expect to live slightly longer than whites of the same age.
Although the white-black mortality gap has persisted over time,
there are signs that this gap is starting to narrow. Between
1999 and 2013, mortality rates have increased among white,
middle-aged men and women in the United States, partly
because of rising death rates from drug and alcohol abuse
(including prescription painkillers), suicide, and chronic liver
diseases and cirrhosis. During the same period, mortality rates
among blacks and Latinos have continued to fall.
35
Women in the United States continue to live longer than
men, on average, but the gender gap in life expectancy has
narrowed in recent years (see Box 3, page 13).
DISABILITY AND HEALTHY AGING
Healthy life expectancy at age 70—the number of years a
person may expect to live disability-free—has been on the
rise.
36
Between 1992 and 2008, overall life expectancy at age
65 increased by 1.3 years while disability-free life expectancy
increased by 1.8 years. The increase in life expectancy free of
disability has been linked to improvements in the prevention
and treatment of certain diseases—especially severe heart
disease and vision problems among older adults.
37
However, disability levels among older adults may increase
in the coming years because of relatively high disability rates
among baby boomers who are now reaching retirement age.
Although baby boomers (ages 51 to 69 in 2015) are living
longer than their parents’ generation and are less likely to
smoke, have emphysema, or have heart attacks, they are
also more likely to be obese or have diabetes or high blood
pressure than the previous generation at similar ages.
38
Being either overweight or underweight at older ages may
signal health problems. Undernutrition is associated with
more deaths after age 70, and obesity is a risk factor for a
variety of chronic conditions such as diabetes, hypertension,
high cholesterol, heart disease, arthritis, and some cancers.
39
Lifestyle changes such as regular exercise instead of or
in addition to medication can be used to manage chronic
diseases and weight.
Recent analyses of U.S. obesity trends using the National
Health and Nutrition Examination Survey show a significant
increase in obesity prevalence among older adults between
1988 and 2012 (see Figure 12). Among the “young old” (ages
65 to 74), the share of men who were obese increased from
24 percent to 36 percent over the two-decade period from
1988-1994 to 2009-2012. Over the same period, the share
of women ages 65 to 74 who were obese increased from 27
percent to 44 percent. Obesity rates also increased among
men and women ages 75 and older, although rates were
lower for that age group.
Older adults are less active than those in younger age groups,
but regular physical activity is important for older adults to
stay healthy and disability-free. In a randomized study of
older adults with physical limitations, those who participated
in a physical activity program over a two-year period were
less likely to experience a major disability compared with
those who participated in a health education program.
40
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)
FIGURE 12
Obesity Continues to Increase Among Older Americans.
1988-1994 1999-2002 2009-2012
Men Ages 65-74
Adults Ages 65 and Older Who Are Obese, by Sex and Age Group,
1988 to 2012
Women Ages 65-74
Men Ages 75+ Women Ages 75+
24%
27%
13%
19%
32%
39%
18%
24%
36%
44%
27%
30%
Note:
Data are based on measured height and weight. Obese is defi ned by having a body
mass index (BMI) of 30 kilograms/meter or greater.
Source:
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health
Statistics, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.
www.prb.org
POPULATION BULLETIN 70.2 2015
13
BOX 3
Narrowing Old-Age Gender Gap in the United States Linked to
Declines in Smoking
Women live longer than men in the United States and in nearly
every country in the world. But in the United States and many
other developed countries, this gender gap is narrowing,
resulting in an increase in the number of men, relative to women,
surviving to old age.
In 1990, there was a seven-year gap in life expectancy between
U.S. men and women. By 2013, this gap had narrowed to less
than fi ve years. It is not that women are dying sooner, but that
men’s life expectancy is increasing at a faster pace. In 2013, life
expectancy at birth was 76.4 years for males and 81.2 years for
females. But if current trends continue, men’s life expectancy
could approach that of women within the next few decades.
The growing number of men surviving to older age groups,
relative to women, is contributing to a rising sex ratio—the
number of males per 100 females—at older ages. The latest data
from the U.S. Census Bureau show that in 2014, there were 79
men ages 65 and older for every 100 women in that age group—
up from 67 older men per 100 older women in 1990 (see Figure).
By 2030, the Census Bureau projects that the sex ratio for older
adults will increase to 82 men per 100 women.
The data for adults ages 85 and older are even more striking.
The sex ratio has increased sharply among the “oldest old,”
from 39 older men per 100 older women in 1990 to 52 in 2014.
Census Bureau projections show that the sex ratio for those
ages 85 and older could rise to 62 by 2030. That represents 24
additional men for every 100 women in the oldest-old category,
compared with the 1990 estimate.
In the United States, researchers have linked the decline in the
gender gap in mortality to male and female patterns of smoking,
which increases the risk of death from lung cancer, heart disease,
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and stroke. During the fi rst
half of the 20th century, smoking prevalence rates among men
and women converged, as men’s rates declined from their earlier
peaks and women’s rates increased—leading to a rise in smoking-
related deaths among women relative to men.
1
Smoking prevalence
peaked among women born in the early 1940s, whereas prevalence
rates peaked for men born in the 1910s. The result has been a
steady reduction in smoking-related deaths among older men and
an increase in deaths among older women.
Similar declines in the gender gap in life expectancy have been
reported in several countries in Europe. In France, the narrowing
gap has been linked to reductions in male deaths due to heart
disease and lung cancer. Improvements in men’s cardiovascular
health, relative to women, has also helped reduce the gender gap
in mortality in England and Wales, Sweden, Switzerland, and Italy.
2
The gender gap at older ages is narrowing across all racial/
ethnic groups, but the trend is most evident for non-Hispanic
whites. Between 2000 and 2014, the number of white men ages
65 and older per 100 white women in that age group increased
from 71 to 80—the largest increase among any of the major
racial/ethnic groups.
The sex ratio is also increasing among African Americans, but
the number of older African American men is still lagging far
behind the number of older women. In 2014, there were just
67 African American men per 100 African American women
ages 65 and older. This imbalance is linked to the high rates of
premature death among African American men. In 2013, the
average life expectancy for black males at birth was just 72
years—well below the average for black females (78 years) and
the U.S. average (79 years).
References
1 Samuel Preston and Haidong Wang, “Sex Mortality Differences in the United States:
The Role of Cohort Smoking Patterns,” Demography 43, no. 4 (2006): 631-46.
2 France Meslé, “Gender Gap in Life Expectancy: The Reasons for a Reduction of
Female Advantage,” Revue d’Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique 52, no. 4 (2004):
333-52.
Number of Older Men for Every 100 Older Women,
by Age Group, 1990, 2014, and 2030.
Ages 65+ Ages 65 to 84 Ages 85+
1990 2030 (Projected)2014
67
79
82
71
84
85
39
52
62
Source:
PRB analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
www.prb.org
POPULATION BULLETIN 70.2 2015
14
recommends a combination of weekly aerobic activity and
muscle-strengthening activities for older adults. However,
in 2013, just 12 percent of older adults met HHS physical
activity guidelines.
41
Cognitive health is another important dimension of healthy
aging. Older Americans who experience a decline in cognitive
ability, which can range from mild cognitive decline to
dementia, are more likely to need regular assistance with daily
activities. Those with severe cognitive disabilities tend to rely
heavily on informal care from family members.
42
Alzheimer’s disease is the most common type of dementia and
is characterized by memory loss and a progressive decline in
cognitive abilities. Nearly 5 million Americans were living with
Alzheimer’s disease in 2013, but this number could increase
to 14 million by 2050 with the aging of the U.S. population.
43
Researchers estimate that Alzheimer’s and other forms of
dementia cost the United States between $157 billion and
$215 billion in long-term care and medical expenses each
year—more than either heart disease or cancer.
44
HAPPINESS
As older Americans live longer, there is growing interest in
exploring the connections between health and happiness
in order to improve the overall quality of life in later years.
This line of research, known as subjective well-being, goes
beyond traditional measures of physical and cognitive health
to understand the emotional dimension of older adults’ lives,
examining whether people perceive their day-to-day existence
as positive and rewarding or negative and distressing.
In the United States and many other higher-income countries,
life satisfaction follows a U-shaped pattern. Happiness falls to
its lowest levels among those ages 45 to 54 before increasing
among those in older age groups.
45
Adults ages 50 and
older report the highest levels of subjective well-being and
are happiest while socializing, working or volunteering, and
exercising.
46
Among older married adults, those with disabilities report
lower levels of life satisfaction compared with those without
disabilities, partly because disabilities limit physical and
social activity.
47
Disability can also put significant physical
and emotional stress on spouses and others who provide
informal care. But research suggests that the quality of a
marriage can mediate this relationship: Troubled marriages
take an emotional toll, whereas high-quality marriages can
buffer against later life stressors, such as providing care to a
disabled spouse.
48
Challenges and Opportunities
The rising number of older Americans will put pressure on
entitlement programs and create challenges for the labor
market and health care systems—as well as family members
who provide the majority of care to older adults with
disabilities.
The United States is not alone in facing the challenges of
an aging population. In fact, the U.S. population is aging at
a slower pace than in many other developed countries (see
Box 4, page 15). The total population in some countries, such
as Japan, is declining because there are not enough births
or migrants to offset the aging of the population. The U.S.
population is still relatively young compared with Japan and
many countries in Europe, but population aging in the United
States will accelerate during the next 30 years.
Most news stories on the topic of U.S. population aging
have focused on the potential negative social and economic
consequences of an aging society. However, the growth
in the older population is a success story from a public
health perspective, as new advances in medicine and living
standards have led to longer life expectancies. Policymakers
can take steps to minimize the negative economic impacts
of population aging by strengthening laws against age
discrimination and providing incentives for older adults to
stay in the labor force beyond the traditional retirement age.
FISCAL CHALLENGES
Two major entitlement programs in the United States—Social
Security and Medicare—have played an important role in
reducing poverty and improving the health and well-being
of the older population. However, the costs of these two
programs are projected to rise rapidly as the U.S. population
ages. The number of people receiving Medicare benefits will
increase by one-third during the next decade, according
to the Congressional Budget Office. Social Security and
Medicare expenditures are projected to make up a combined
12 percent of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by
2050, up from 8 percent today (see Figure 13).
FIGURE 13
Social Security and Medicare Expenditures Are Projected
to Reach a Combined 12 Percent of GDP by 2050.
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Social Security
Projected Social Security and Medicare Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP
Medicare
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
6%
6%
3%
1%
Source:
Social Security Administration, Summary of the 2014 Annual Reports.
www.prb.org
POPULATION BULLETIN 70.2 2015
15
Many policymakers and planners are concerned about the
relatively fewer workers who will be supporting a growing
retired population. One way to evaluate social support needs
is through the elderly support ratio—the number of working-
age adults ages 18 to 64 for every person age 65 or older.
Of course, the elderly support ratio is just an approximation
because some people stop working before they reach age 65
and an increasing number are continuing to work into their
late 60s and early 70s.
The elderly support ratio dropped from about 14 working-
age adults per person age 65 or older at the turn of the 20th
century to 5 at the beginning of the 21st century. By 2014,
there were approximately 4 working-age persons per older
adult, and the ratio could drop to about 2 by 2060, according
to the latest Census Bureau projections (see Figure 14).
Although population aging will create fiscal challenges,
many argue that these challenges can be managed through
structural changes to existing entitlement programs, an
increase in retirement savings among workers, and by
shifting retirement to later ages. Improved health and longer
FIGURE 14
By 2030, There Will Be Only About Three Working-Age
Adults For Every Person Age 65 or Older.
13.6
6.0
1900 1960 2000
Elderly Support Ratio*
2014 2030 2060
5.0
4.3
2.8
2.4
*Number of persons ages 18 to 64 for every person age 65 or older.
Source:
PRB analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
BOX 4
Aging Populations Challenge Countries Worldwide
Population aging is a global trend impacting both developed
countries and less developed nations. At 26 percent, Japan’s
older population has already surpassed the share of older adults
projected for the United States by 2050 (see Table). In Germany
and Italy, the share of older adults is projected to increase from
about one-fi fth of the population today to about one-third by
2050. Rapid population aging is also expected in parts of Asia
and Latin America, including Brazil, China, India, and Mexico. In
China, it’s projected that there will be 371 million people ages 65
and older in 2050—more than the entire 2015 U.S. population.
Global population aging will put pressure on social and economic
support systems—especially in countries like China, where rapid
economic development and low fertility levels have reduced
the availability of family caregivers.
1
Countries with aging
populations will also experience increases in noncommunicable
diseases, such as cancer, heart disease, diabetes, and lung
disease—ailments that are more common among older adults.
On a positive note, global population aging refl ects the broader
health transition that is taking place in developing countries,
characterized by reductions in fertility, child and adult mortality,
and infectious disease.
2
References
1. Richard Jackson, “The Aging of China” (2010), accessed at
http://csis.org/publication/aging-china-0, on Nov. 4, 2015.
2. National Institute on Aging, “Why Population Aging Matters: A Global Perspective,”
accessed online at www.nia.nih.gov/research/publication/why-population-aging-
matters-global-perspective, on Nov. 4, 2015.
The U.S. Population Is Aging at a Slower Pace Than Many
Other Developed Countries.
Percent of the Population Ages 65 and Older
1980 2015 2050
U.S. 11 15 22
Japan 9 26 36
Italy 13 22 35
Germany 16 21 32
China 5 10 28
France 14 19 26
United Kingdom 15 18 25
Brazil 4 8 23
Russia 10 13 21
Mexico 4 7 19
India 4 6 14
Egypt 5 5 10
Uganda 3 3 4
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision; and U.S. Census Bureau,
Population Estimates and Projections.
www.prb.org
POPULATION BULLETIN 70.2 2015
16
life expectancy among older adults is paving the way for
employment well beyond the traditional retirement age of
65.
49
In 1950, the average man retiring at age 65 could expect
to live another 13 years, and a 65-year-old woman another
15 years. Today, men average an additional 17.9 years and
women another 20.5 years beyond age 65.
CARING FOR AN AGING POPULATION
As the U.S. population grows older, there will be a steady
increase in the number of older adults with functional and
cognitive disabilities. Historically, older adults have relied
heavily on their adult children to provide support and care
when they needed assistance. This is especially true among
older women, who are much more likely than older men to
be living alone. However, recent trends in marriage and family
patterns may limit the availability of adult children who are
available—or willing—to provide care for older parents in the
coming decades. More young adults are delaying marriage,
and in 2013, 41 percent of births occurred outside of marriage,
up from 33 percent in 2000. As a result, more children are
growing up in single-parent families and “blended families”
made up of a couple and their children from current and
previous relationships. Studies have shown that children's
complex living arrangements may lead to weaker family ties
and less support for aging parents.
50
With more men surviving to old age, more potential partners
and caregivers are available for older women (see Box 3,
page 13). However, the reality of caregiving is more complex
because of the rising number of older adults who are single.
Nearly half of female baby boomers will have been divorced
by age 65, according to recent estimates.
51
Although many
of these women have remarried, there has also been a rapid
increase in older adults who are single or cohabiting.
52
Given
these changes in marriage and family patterns, it is too soon
to tell whether men’s longer life expectancy will translate into
better support mechanisms for older women, or if these gains
will be offset by broader social trends.
A growing number of older adults with disabilities rely on
assistive devices and technologies (walkers and scooters,
for example) to maintain their independence. In fact, one of
the key goals of the 1990 Americans with Disabilities Act
was to promote the use of assistive technologies and public
accommodations for persons with functional or cognitive
limitations. However, whites and those with higher income
and education are more likely to use these technologies
compared with minorities and those with lower socioeconomic
status. Closing this gap in the use of these devices would help
promote greater independence for lower-income groups and
reduce their reliance on others for help.
53
In the future, better
technologies could also help reduce the number of older
adults entering long-term care facilities, providing significant
savings to individuals and the health care system.
Conclusion
The current growth of the population ages 65 and older is
unprecedented in U.S. history, and has important social,
economic, and health implications. Recent changes in
marriage patterns and family structure may exacerbate these
challenges by reducing the availability of family caregivers for
older relatives. The effects of these demographic trends will
depend in large part on the policy choices that Americans
make now and in the coming years. Although government
programs such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid
have helped reduce poverty and improve the health of the
older population, current projections indicate that these
programs—as currently implemented—are not sustainable.
Making adaptive policy changes now will ensure that an
effective safety net is in place when the youngest baby
boomers retire.
Policymakers can also improve the outlook for the future by
reducing current gaps in education, employment,
and earnings among younger workers. The baby-boom
generation may be the last made up of a non-Hispanic
white majority population. The younger generation is
much more diverse, with higher shares of Latinos, African
Americans, and Asian Americans in each successive cohort.
But blacks and Latinos, in particular, have lagged behind
whites and Asians on most measures of economic well-
being, including the amount of money saved for retirement.
Improving economic conditions for younger workers and
their families will yield better health outcomes and quality of
life for future generations of older Americans.
www.prb.org
POPULATION BULLETIN 70.2 2015
17
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.
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29. Xiaoyan Li, Michael Hurd, and David S. Loughran, “The Characteristics of
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30. For a summary of this research, see Maximiliane E. Szinovacz, Lauren Martin,
and Adam Davey, “Recession and Expected Retirement Age: Another Look at
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.
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.
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36. Eileen M. Crimmins et al., “Change in Disability-Free Life Expectancy for
Americans 70 Years Old and Older,” Demography 46, no. 3 (2009): 627-46.
37. Michael Chernew et al., “Understanding the Improvement in Disability Free
Life Expectancy in the U.S. Elderly Population,” accessed at
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chapters/c13631.pdf, on Nov. 5, 2015
.
38. Paola Scommegna, “Aging U.S. Baby Boomers Face More Disability,”
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18
40. Marco Pahor et al., “Effect of Structured Physical Activity on Prevention
of Major Mobility Disability in Older Adults: The LIFE Study Randomized
Clinical Trial,” Journal of the American Medical Association 311, no. 23
(2014): 2387-96.
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42. Toru Okura and Kenneth M. Langa, “Caregiver Burden and Neuropsychiatric
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Demographics, and Memory Study (ADAMS),” Alzheimer Disease Association
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New England Journal of Medicine 368 (2013): 1326-34.
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Health, and Ageing,” Lancet 385, no. 9968 (2015): 640-48.
46. Jacqui Smith et al., “Snapshots of Mixtures of Affective Experiences in a Day:
Findings From the Health and Retirement Study,” Population Ageing 7, no. 1
(2014): 55-79.
47. Vicki Freedman, “Disability, Participation, and Subjective Wellbeing Among
Older Couples,” Social Science and Medicine 74, no. 4 (2012): 588-96.
48. Deborah Carr et al., “Happy Marriage, Happy Life? Marital Quality and
Subjective Well-Being in Later Life,” Journal of Marriage and Family 76
(2014): 930-48.
49. National Research Council, Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term
Implications of an Older Population (Washington, DC: The National
Academies Press, 2012).
50. Karen Fingerman et al., “The Baby Boomers' Intergenerational Relationships,”
The Gerontologist 52, no. 2 (2012): 199-209.
51. Andrew Cherlin, “Family Care for an Aging Population: The Demographic
Context,” presentation, June 2010, accessed at www.prb.org/pdf10/cherlin_
presentation.pdf, on Nov. 5, 2015.
52. Brown, Bulanda, and Lee, “Transitions Into and Out of Cohabitation in
Later Life.”
53. Vicki A. Freedman et al., “Trends in Assistance With Daily Activities: Racial/
Ethnic and Socioeconomic Disparities Persist in the U.S. Older Population,”
in Health at Older Ages: The Causes and Consequences of Declining
Disability Among the Elderly, ed. David M. Cutler and David A. Wise (Chicago:
University of Chicago Press, 2009).
www.prb.org
19
MORE ON U.S. AGING
FROM PRB ONLINE
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by Carl Haub and O.P. Sharma
No. 2 Aging in the United States
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AGING IN THE UNITED STATES
The current growth of the population ages 65 and older is one of the
most significant demographic trends in the history of the United States.
Baby boomers—those born between 1946 and 1964—have brought
both challenges and opportunities to the economy, infrastructure, and
institutions as they have passed through each major stage of life. Although
U.S. policymakers and others have had many decades to plan for the
inevitable aging of the baby boom cohort, it is not clear that sufficient
preparations have been made to meet baby boomers’ anticipated needs in
old age.